Content Synopsis: Harry Dent has been confusing “experts” for twenty years by predicting economic and financial trends and markets based primarily on demographics and business cycles.
This is your fifth book in a series that has predicted economic trends. If Harry Dent is right once again, everyone should be reading this book! Dent’s thesis is relatively simple: He argues that demographic trends drive business cycles that have been predictable for several centuries, and that these cycles drive the economy regardless of much else that is happening.
This fifth book tracks that giant “baby boom” generation: 92 million people in the United States born between 1946 and 1964 who have had the greatest impact on our economy and society in the last half century. Explain how this large demographic changes the demand for goods and services as they go through different phases from the explosion of school construction in the 1960s to educating them through the strong economy of the 1990s and early 2000s. , when they were at the peak of their consumption. period.
The Great Crash Ahead now predicts an economic depression from 2008 to 2018 or more due to the aging of this demographic and their lower demand for goods and services. Combined with misguided government and financial policies, this cycle built a giant “bubble” for real estate and credit during the first decade of the 21st century. This period from 2001-2007 was seen as a good time with easy credit and easy access to home ownership.
All bubbles in the economy are self-correcting. Dent describes how the correction in this housing and credit bubble, combined with the steady reduction in spending by the largest group of Americans, is working to create the worst financial depression since the 1930s. credit to both the government and the private sector and how it cannot be repaired quickly. This then inevitably leads to financial market failures and significant price deflation over the next decade. Dent is not limited to the United States. Explain how similar demographic trends and bubbles led to a depressed Japanese economy over the past 20 years and will lead to similar problems in Europe and China.
Dent bases much of this on an 80-year boom-and-bust cycle that his research shows has been repeated many times over the past hundreds of years. Now, 80 years after the great depression, we are back in the “winter” of this cycle that will last for ten to fifteen years before a new spring leads to a slow recovery in the 2020s.
It’s hard to ignore Dent’s theory. In the late 1980s, he predicted the demise of the Japanese economy when most economists and experts were optimistic about Japan. Similarly, in the 1990s, when many predicted tough times for the American economy, Dent predicted the boom of the 1990s and early 2000s. The book traces the government’s failure to correct this cycle because it simply did not can do it. It examines the huge private and government debt that must be paid off or written off to restore the economy. His macro predictions have been spot on so far, so it’s foolish to ignore what he’s saying now. If you are wrong, it will be the first time in your three decades of predictions, and if you are right, we will face tough times.
At the end of the book, Dent gives advice on how we can use this information to protect assets and invest wisely in this “new” world. It teaches how to forget the way of doing the things we learned over the last half century and how to adapt to a new economy.
Sure, Dent has his critics. A quick Google of his name and books shows a number of highly critical articles arguing that Dent assumes too much, that his analysis, while technically impressive, overlooks other factors that will influence the economy beyond his demographic predictions and some that offer complex Elliott wave analyzes suggesting that Dent is wrong.
At the same time, he has an impressive following. David Bach, John Thomas, Kim, and Charles Githler, and a long list of others support his book. I can’t say for sure if Dent is right or the critics right, but if he’s right, it deserves consideration. Again, while some of the details in your predictions may not have always been perfect, the overall accuracy of your predictions to date cannot be overlooked or discounted.
Utility: It should be noted that any prediction of future economic trends and behavior is inherently risk-laden. However, if Dent’s predictions in this book are as accurate as his previous analysis, this will prove very helpful to anyone saving for retirement, investing, running a business, or choosing a career.
Readability / Quality of writing: Dent writes well and clearly. The book is full of fairly complex economic and demographic analyzes. It is not an easy book to read, but it is worth the effort to understand.
Notes on the author: Harry Dent is the author and director of the HS Dent Financial Advisor Network. Publish a regular financial newsletter. He is the author of The Great Boom Ahead, The Roaring 2000s Investor, The Next Great Bubble Boom, and The Great Depression Ahead.
Three great ideas you can use:
1. The economy is driven primarily by demographic trends, which, in turn, drive business cycles. Outside activities, including wars, natural disasters, and government actions, have minimal effect on these trends. Understanding these cycles and trends is critical to planning for the future and protecting investments.
2. In the latter part of the first decade of this century, we have entered a winter phase of a very broad demographic and economic cycle of 80 years. Nothing the government does will change this. This winter cycle will lead to a major debt restructuring, market corrections, and deflation. The period from 2008-2018 will look a lot like 1930-1940.
3. Understanding this mega trend and its inevitable consequences is essential to invest wisely over the next decade to protect current assets and exploit the winter economy.
Publication Information: The Great Crash Ahead by Harry S. Dent, Jr. with Rodney Johnson Copyright 2011 by HS Dent Publishing Published by Free Press, a division of Simon and Schuster
