It’s no secret that there are plenty of “smart money” players making money on sports betting every week. How? Many use sports handicap services to find the games they have the best chance of winning. The following are two examples taken directly from my sports disability service at David James Sports.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears -16
Wow… That’s a lot of points to give up in an NFL game. Of course, when you start looking at the two teams, you can understand why the 49ers get so many points. With the exception of Monday night’s near-disaster in Arizona against the Cardinals, the Bears have totally dominated all season. In four of the Bears’ victories they outscored their opponents 137-20.
Think about that stat for a second. We’re talking about NFL teams, not superpowered little college teams playing against powerhouses. 137-20 in 16 quarters of football, which included last year’s NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. With professional games, even more weight is put on the here and now rather than historical stats.
The here and now says that the Bears have the potential to be a team for the ages. The only reason they came close to losing in Arizona was because their offense turned the ball over 6 times. And yet, the Bears found a way to win. On the other hand, the 49ers are just another lousy football team. Somehow they managed to beat St. Louis and Oakland this season, but have given up more than 40 points a game in their four losses. This is the key stat of this game. The 49ers defense is likely to let Chicago score in the middle, up to the high 30s in this game.
With the line at 16, the question is, can the 49ers score 20 points against the Bears’ defense? I really doubt it. Forget about high scores against the spread etc in this game. What this game boils down to is that the 49ers are overwhelmingly unbalanced on both sides of the ball, and they go into a very hostile and highly amplified environment. The Bears are going to try and pour it in front of their home fans.
I’m looking for the Bears to crush the 49ers in this one, 37-10.
As you can see from this example, a good sports handicapper can cut through all the nonsense and get right to the heart of a game. I mean, the Bears have a far superior team and will be able to destroy the 49ers. The actual final score in this game was 41-10.
The second game was the best matchup of the day. You can see when you read this analysis that the professional sports handicapper can once again focus on what is most important about the game:
Indianapolis Cots +3 at Denver Broncos
This game is the marquis showdown of the week. This game could very well be a preview of the AFC championship game… so we’re going with the Colts on this one. Let me explain. Tony Dungy is a great coach and a great man.
However, he is not as good in the playoffs. Why? First, their teams can beat lesser teams during the regular season because they have more talent, but when they play against opponents that are more evenly matched, it’s much harder to get from one end of the field to the other, especially in the playoffs. But the second reason is that Dungy isn’t as smart as some of the more experienced coaches — Mike Shanahan, for example.
What that means is that the Colts will do everything they can to win this game, even if it means showing the Broncos some twists and wrinkles that they should save for their likely playoff matchup. More importantly, Indy knows the pressure is on them to win the Super Bowl again. They know a loss to Denver could mean going back to Denver in a snowstorm in January to make it to the Super Bowl.
Peyton Manning does NOT want to play in another playoff blizzard and embarrass himself again. Also, just looking at the two teams, this game doesn’t really match up. Denver hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game this season. They actually only scored 17 points TWICE this season. All of his other games were under 13.
Denver’s defense is playing very well, but in my opinion, it’s overrated. His last three games were against Cleveland, Oakland and Baltimore. Look back at how the Steelers destroyed their secondary in the AFC championship game last January. Manning is going to do the same. With all this in mind, in my opinion, it’s crazy that the Colts are GETTING 3 points in this game.
Like the Kansas City game, I think the Colts’ chances of winning this game are at least 50/50. With the three points added, the odds of winning this bet increase dramatically. Look for the Colts to win and go, 28-13.
What actually happened in this game is very close to what was predicted, with the Colts winning by 3 points. The Broncos, knowing they will play Indy again in the playoffs, kept their defense in a soft zone throughout the game. This allowed Indy to score whenever he had the ball, but allowed the Broncos to keep a few tricks up their sleeves for their next game.
