Coach Ron Zook’s Illinois team took the Big Ten by storm last year, tying Michigan for second at 6-2 and going 9-3 in the regular season. Champaign’s Fighting Illini came forward sneaking up on some opponents.
They then made it to the Rose Bowl to face Southern California and took around 49 hammer-ball headshots as the Trojans won and went away, 49-17. Last year, Illinois finished 20th in the final AP poll. All of the fight and enthusiasm of last year landed Illinois in the Top 25 AP poll this year.
The Illini, currently ranked 22nd, have no business in the AP Top 25, and will likely realize that after visiting 16th-ranked Penn State in Happy Valley next weekend (27-9 -08). They have a bye this weekend and will need all the extra time to prepare to face Jo Pa’s (Joe Paterno) Nittany Lions.
Teams that did well last year usually get a free bye into the AP Top 25 the following year. Whether they maintain the ranking is another matter. In the case of Illinois, while they are currently ranked 22nd in the AP Poll, Sagarin’s football ratings rank them 66th, where they belong.
The AP Top 25 poll is determined each week by 64 influential sportswriters from across the country. It can be argued that it is a popularity poll. Jeff Sagarin’s NCAA Football Ratings uses scientific and statistical analysis to determine the pecking order of the 245 teams in Division I-A (119 teams) and I-AA (all others). Sagarin’s qualifications are the gold standard.
Part of Illinois’ No. 66 rating right now is because the Fighting Illini has played a weak schedule of opponents, the 106th weakest schedule rank in the country to be exact. Sure, the Illini started with Missouri (not exactly a walk in the park), but they also faced off against Eastern Illinois (ranked 157) and Louisiana-Lafayette (ranked 128), not exactly college football powerhouses.
Here’s also a news flash for the Fighting Illini, who gave up an average of 30 points to their first 3 opponents: You can’t give up 30 points a game and win a lot of games against good teams. Last year, Illinois gave up 21 points per game and still won 9 games. This year, the Illini defense gave up 52 points in losing to Missouri in their opener. Missouri is currently ranked #5 in the AP Poll.
The road ahead for Ron Zook’s Illini is an interesting one as they must face Penn State (currently 3-0), Michigan (1-2), Minnesota (3-0), Indiana (2-0), Wisconsin (3- 0), Iowa (3-0), Ohio State (2-1) and Northwest (3-0). The combined record of these opponents is 20-3 at this time.
Zook might be tricked before he sneaks up on someone this year.
If you’re wondering, the next 5 most overrated teams currently in the AP Poll are Fresno State, South Florida, Clemson, Kansas and Missouri (yes, Missouri). The two most underrated teams are Penn State and Brigham Young (BYU).
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley
